NFL Preseason Betting Preview
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 8:00 pm Eastern – NFL Network

Opening Line: Colts - 3, Total 37

Indianapolis will open up their new stadium on Sunday as they host the Buffalo Bills in preseason action. The game will be shown on NFL Network and could end up being a battle between backup quarterbacks. Normally the starters for both teams would play into the third quarter but Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning is still out and Buffalo starting quarterback Trent Edwards is questionable. That means that Jim Sorgi will get a lot of playing time for the Colts while J.P. Losman will see a lot of time for the Bills. Early NFL betting has the public taking the Colts at Home.

The Colts could have a couple of starters back in action on Sunday. Top defensive stars Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney might play on Sunday.
Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy has said the starters will play into the third quarter on Sunday. “I always like to do that in the third preseason game – get us playing in the third quarter so we get the feel for what we do at halftime and how we make adjustments, incorporating that into the second half. I’d say those guys would play into the third quarter for sure.” Dungy said.

The Colts lost the Hall of Fame game to Washington, lost to Carolina in week 1 in overtime and defeated Atlanta last week. Buffalo has split their two-preseason games, winning last week against Pittsburgh but losing their opener against Washington.

Current Line: Colts - 5.5, Total 38

NFL betting stats show that this will be the fifth preseason meeting between the Colts and Bills. Indianapolis has a 3-1 preseason series edge. The two teams used to be in the same division for many years, which is why they have only met four times in preseason history.

Looking at the NFL betting stats for the coaches we see that Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron has a below .500 record against the spread in his preseason career. Tony Dungy is also below the .500 mark against the point spread in the preseason as head coach of the Colts

NFL Preseason Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern – CBS

Opening Line: Steelers –2.5, Total 37

The Minnesota Vikings are expected to have quarterback Tarvaris Jackson under center on Saturday night as they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson sprained his knee last week against Baltimore but is expected to start on Saturday. Most of the starters for both teams will play into the third quarter.
“You treat it like a regular season game because you are going to be out there longer,” said Pittsburgh running back Willie Parker. “I am out there trying to get better. It’s a preseason game but it’s time to see where we are at as a team.” Early NFL betting has the public taking the Steelers on the Road.

The Steelers will go with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for at least the first half and then Byron Leftwich will get more playing time. He played last week against the Bills and went 5-11 for 41 yards. “I am feeling more comfortable,” said Leftwich. “I have a better understanding of what we are trying to do offensively. It was a tough situation last week when I only had two days. At the same time it’s getting better. I don’t want to say I am fully getting the offense but I am getting the offense to the point where I know where the ball needs to go and what we are trying to do. I am looking forward to it because I have a week to prepare instead of two days. I am anxious and excited to go back out there on Saturday.” Pittsburgh is still trying to find cohesiveness on the offensive line. They lost Alan Faneca in the off-season and are trying to find the right combination upfront. Chris Kemoeatu started the first two-preseason games at left guard, Sean Mahan started at center against the Eagles and Justin Hartwig will get his second start of the preseason this week. “We have to get used to the people that are in there,” said Parker. “We are shuffling people around. There are some new faces. We have to get a feel for the line and get comfortable with the line set.. It really doesn’t affect me. It makes me better. Some offensive linemen do things different or better than others so it keeps me on my toes how I make my reads.”

Current Line: Steelers - 2.5, Total 37

NFL betting stats show that the teams have met 10 times in the preseason with the Vikings winning 8 of the 10 games. Minnesota won the last preseason meeting 17-10 in 2006. This is the first preseason meeting between the two teams in Minnesota since 2001. Pittsburgh has not defeated the Vikings in the preseason since 2002. Pittsburgh is 105-95-1 all-time in preseason play. Minnesota is 130-84-3 all-time in the preseason. Minnesota has finished at .500 or better in 37 of their 47 preseasons.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Friday, 7:30 pm Eastern

Opening Line: Patriots - 4, Total 38

The New England Patriots have looked nothing like the team that went undefeated during the 2007 regular season so far this preseason. The Patriots have been without quarterback Tom Brady and he is questionable for this game on Friday. Normally the third game of the preseason is a dress rehearsal for the regular season but the Patriots may not treat the game as such. Philadelphia will be looking at the game as a big test though. Quarterback Donovan McNabb and the Eagles will look to play far better than they did last week against Carolina. Early NFL betting has the public-taking the Eagles on the Road.

The Eagles will be without wide receiver Kevin Curtis on Friday. He will be out for quite a while after suffering a sports hernia. “We’re trying to not wait and do that whole thing,” head coach Andy Reid said. “We’re trying to get on it. We’ve identified (the hernia) and it’s the problem, and we’re trying to get it taken care of.” Wide receiver Reggie Brown will also not play on Friday and that means DeSean Jackson will start in Brown’s spot Friday in New England, while Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett will rotate at Curtis’ spot.

The Patriots will be looking for their regulars to play better on Friday even if Brady does not play. “We try to emphasize every opportunity we get to prepare for our regular season opener. So that is all of training camp practices and all four preseason games. I think they are all important and we try to maximize all of them. Each game gives the players the opportunity to fine-tune their skills, techniques, reactions and all that in preparation for the regular season.” Head coach Bill Belichick said, “This game is a good one. It’s a good opportunity against a good football team. The guys that get the chance to participate in the game, I’m sure they will be able to utilize that to help them prepare for the season. Not everybody will, but the guys that do, that will be good for them. The guys that don’t, hopefully they will get it some other time or they have already gotten it.”

Current Line: Patriots - 2.5, Total 37

NFL betting stats show that this is the fourth time in the preseason that the Eagles and Patriots have met with Andy Reid as head coach of the Eagles. The Patriots won all three preseason meetings from 2002 to 2004. The Eagles are 14-25 under head coach Andy Reid in the preseason. Overall the two teams have met 17 times in preseason history. The Patriots have a 9-8 edge in those meetings and have won the last six overall.

NFL Preseason Betting Preview
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Thursday, 8:00 pm Eastern – FOX

Opening Line: Bears - 5, Total 35

The Chicago Bears will start Kyle Orton at quarterback this season and his first test as the main man comes in Thursday’s preseason game against the San Francisco 49ers. Orton won the job over Rex Grossman, although neither player was overwhelming in their play this preseason. Orton is 12-6 as a starting quarterback for the Bears in his three seasons. “To come to a decision like that, we’ve taken a lot of things into consideration—last year, how we finished the season, OTAs, training camp, preseason games,” head coach Lovie Smith said. “In the end it comes down to a gut feeling that you have, and I feel good about Kyle leading our team.”

Chicago will get a long look at their new starting quarterback on Thursday as the Bears are expected to play their starters into the third quarter. “I think I’ve continued to get better in the preseason, so this will be another step to take.” Orton said, “We’ll get a lot more playing time this week and just try to get ready for Indianapolis (season opener).” Orton was just barely better than Grossman in the first two-preseason games. His quarterback rating was 63.2 compared to Grossman’s 56.5. Those numbers tell you how poorly the quarterbacks in Chicago really have been in recent seasons.

Current Line: Bears - 3, Total 37

While the Bears have settled on a starting quarterback heading into Thursday’s game, the 49ers have not. Head coach Mike Nolan said that all three quarterbacks would get a similar amount of playing time on Thursday with J.T. O’Sullivan starting followed by Alex Smith and Shaun Hill.
“The quarterback rotation will be the same for Chicago on Thursday. We have a short week to prepare, and I want to keep the team focused on the Bears,” said Nolan. “The starters will most likely play the first half, with the second unit coming in during the third quarter.”

NFL betting stats show that the two teams have met in preseason action the last three years with the Bears winning two of the three games including both home games. Two of the three games went over the total. The teams have met four times since 2001 in regular season play with Chicago winning four of the five matchups.

The break-even point in wagering on football is a lower percentage than most bettors will believe. Winning just 53% of your wagers, and after paying the juice you will still have a nice profit when the season is over. Here is one thing to watch and remember as we enter the 2008 Football season.

The betting public loves the favorite, LOVES THEM. Most friendly gamblers will play them because they are supposed to win. Now some teams as favorites are a solid play. A team like the Pittsburgh Steelers are a good team to follow and play as favorites. Under past Head Coach Bill Cowher they won and covered close to 80% of their games as favorites. But as we digest more of the data and the public perceptions, we can understand why and when it’s time to play a favorite or a dog. As a dog bettor, you need to be patient. The linesmaker will set his line with public perception in mind. They know who the public loves and will adjust the line higher to accommodate for that. And the public will eat that line up and drive it even higher. You need to wait until the bitter end to play your dog team when the number will be at it’s best.

Now if you are a favorites player you need to be ready to go early in the week. Know the schedule, trends/stats and ready yourself to place your action early. How may times have you sat on the fence and waited because “the line has to come down” and it never did. You can never be afraid to bet a favorite to early, just be aware of changes (weather, injuries) that could occur in the days leading up to the game.

One last key point to keep in the back of your mind is this. Approximately 16% of all NFL games are decided by 3 points or less. Think about that the next time you are wagering (favorite or dog) and the line sits somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 because that .5 on either side of the line can be the reason for or the solution to all of a gamblers problems.